Reciprocal Tariff Update #13 - Waiting on the Supreme Court While Continuing Protective Measures

The Trump Administration: Waiting on the Supreme Court While Continuing Protective Measures

*Updates from Rafe Morrissey, Morrissey Strategic Partners, LLC & Craig Brightup, The Brightup Group, LLC

While most eyes are focused on the United States Supreme Court in anticipation of its decision over the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, the Administration continues  moving to protect its position regardless of the high Court’s judicial outcome.  While much depends on the Court’s clarity regarding the specific process for refunds should it rule that that the tariffs are illegal, the Administration has signaled that it has been developing a substitute regime to keep any duties in place.  Without clear instruction from the Court, the road to refunds most likely would be both lengthy and complicated.  Moreover, it has been reported that experts do not anticipate a de-escalation of the tariff regime anytime soon.

With Mixed Economic Data, Some Retreat in Policy

Yet at the same time, the administration seems to be imposing on itself some measure of self-discipline regarding tariffs, possibly in the interest of self-preservation.  Although it was reported in late December that United States GDP growth at 4.3% outpaced expectations, and amid strong reports of increases in both corporate profits and consumer spending, neither consumer nor business attitudes have improved.  Reflected in this on the business side is the fact that small and medium size businesses – rather than consumers – have absorbed most of the hit of tariff policies.  According to the Washington Post, corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025, reaching levels not seen since the Great Recession’s immediate aftermath, as companies struggled to absorb inflation and rising interest rates as well as supply chain disruptions and increased costs.  According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, at least 717 companies filed for bankruptcy through November 2025, roughly 14 percent more than the same 11 month period in 2024, and the highest total since 2010.

Amid this dichotomy between increased GDP growth and unimproved business and consumer attitude, the Administration has pulled back on tariffs.  Despite China’s announcement that it would impose quotas and tariffs on beef imports – denounced by United States trade officials as unfair – the Administration indicated that it would delay tariffs on computer chip imports from China until 2027.  Likewise, the  Administration has delayed for one year steep tariff hikes on imported furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities (maintaining the current 25% rather than increasing to 30% on furniture and to 50% on cabinets and vanities)  and rolling back (from over 90% to between 2.26% and13.98%) proposed anti-dumping tariffs threatened on imported Italian pasta following months of negotiations with Italian officials and producers.

What all this might suggest is that while tariffs in the 10-15% range might factor indefinitely, extraordinarily high rates are less likely, and indeed the Administration might act to further expand exemptions to address affordability concerns.  Emerging as a key challenge in the months ahead is developing a rational exemption policy that allowsbeef imports for input from impacted businesses, rather than the haphazard and seemingly arbitrary process that dominated in 2025.

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