Trade & Tariff Update #18 - The Administration Stays the Course Despite Political Setbacks & More

The Administration Stays the Course Despite Political Setbacks

On Tuesday last week the Administration’s tariff regime was dealt a rare rebuke from both sides of the aisle when a group of House Republicans joined Democrats in defeating a rule that would have blocked any snap votes to repeal the tariffs until July.  The pushback continued the next day when the House passed by a vote of 219-211 a resolution disapproving of the Trump Administration’s tariffs against Canada.  More Democratic-led tariff disapproval resolutions are anticipated.   

While this is a positive development for tariff opponents, it should be kept in perspective.  Excluding a few Republican members in swing districts, the majority supporting these measures are dedicated Trump antagonists, and several have announced their retirement.  Senate passage of the resolutions is possible but by no means guaranteed, and there is no indication that veto-proof majorities exist.  Although all 217 Democrats voted against the rule and the Canadian tariff disapproval resolution, the Trade Review Act of 2025 (H.R. 2665) that would restore Congressional authority over all tariffs has only eight co-sponsors (including only 2 of the GOP members who supported the resolution) and has not added any since April of last year.  These votes therefore could be viewed as “performative legilectioneering” that is unlikely to lead to tariff elimination in the short term. 

Moreover, last week President Trump repeated his predilection for using tariffs to leverage foreign policy, admitting that he had increased tariffs on Switzerland because he did not like the way that nation’s former leader spoke on a call.  Taking further aim against Canada, he also suggested that he might not allow a new bridge connecting Michigan to Canada and funded by the Canadian government to open. This latest jab continues the ongoing dispute between the President and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and likely could be posturing ahead of upcoming negotiations over renewing the USMCA trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico.  If history is any guide regarding such talks, additional aggressive actions may be anticipated.  

Some Positive Economic Data Amid Indications That Americans Bear Most of the Tariff Burden 

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