At APPA’s November Trade Talks Open Office Hours, one thing became crystal clear: tariffs and trade policy are not going back to “normal” anytime soon, but pet industry companies do have options to protect themselves and prepare for what’s coming next.
This month APPA added two new government relations experts to our trade & tariff resource panel. This is part of a key APPA initiative and membership benefit designed to help our members navigate the ever-evolving trade landscape and create a pathway to future success.
Our panel of experts now includes Rebecca Rizutti (Progressive Trade Consulting), Rafe Morrissey (Morrissey Strategic Partners), and Craig Brightup (The Brightup Group). Which now gives APPA members insights to not only the logistics side of trade, but the legislative side.
We once again walked APPA members through the fast-moving developments in Washington, what’s really at stake in the courts, and the practical steps every importer should be taking now, not later.
As we enter the critical holiday season, we realize that our members’ time is not only valuable, but very limited. Therefore, we are breaking down five of the biggest takeaways from that conversation.
Much of the discussion focused on the Supreme Court’s review of the IEEPA-based and reciprocal tariffs. The Court is essentially deciding whether the president exceeded his authority when using emergency powers to impose these tariffs.
Rafe explained that lower courts have already ruled that the tariffs were outside the president’s statutory authority, and the Supreme Court can either:
Craig underscored how complicated the refund side could be. Justice Amy Coney Barrett bluntly asked whether a ruling against the tariffs would make the refund process “a big mess”, and the answer, realistically, is yes. The Court may very well kick the details back to the Court of International Trade, leaving importers to navigate a long, technical process with no guarantees.
The bottom line: this decision could unlock refund opportunities, but only for companies that are prepared and properly positioned.
Rebecca led the panel in an in-depth conversation regarding practical business logistics surrounding the potential court ruling: timelines and paperwork.
Here’s the critical sequence she laid out:
To protect your ability to seek a refund, even if we don’t yet know if refunds will be available, you should be:
Rebecca was candid with our audience and panel when she explained that if you do nothing now and simply wait for the Supreme Court’s ruling, you may find yourself shut out of any refund path later.
That concern is very real. During our call, we shared poll results from the session which indicated that about 65% of attendees said they have not yet started identifying entries subject to these tariffs. If you’re in that group, the time to move is now.
Even if the Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA based tariffs, no one on the panel believes we’re going back to the pre-Trump era of near-frictionless trade.
Rafe put it bluntly: there is no realistic path back to a “tariff-free” world. The more likely future is a patchwork of different authorities and tools:
Rebecca noted that we’re already seeing products quietly migrate from IEEPA to 232 tariffs, especially in steel, aluminum, automotive, minerals, and similar sectors. That shift offers the administration a kind of “back door” option even if IEEPA authority is limited, tariffs can still live on under alternate statutes.
Craig added that the White House is almost certainly already working through multiple contingency plans. From a business standpoint, that means one thing: tariff exposure is likely to remain a structural factor for many importers, including those in the pet industry.
Several questions from APPA members centered on volatility. If tariffs are here to stay, is it better to at least have a stable, predictable rate?
Both Rafe and Craig emphasized how damaging the “on-again, off-again” nature of tariff policy has been:
In their conversations with CEOs, policymakers are hearing a consistent message: “We can live with tariffs if we know what they are and they don’t change every few months.”
Rafe suggested that many of the recent trade deals seem to be converging toward an implicit “access fee” of roughly 15–20% as a baseline tariff on certain imports. That’s not official policy, but it’s a useful mental model for companies thinking about long-term planning.
The panel also unpacked the recent one-year trade “truce” with China, which includes:
On paper, that’s a welcome pause, but as Rafe pointed out, early reports suggest that China has not fully lived up to its soybean purchase commitments yet. That creates a political and economic dilemma:
If China drags its feet, pressure will grow to ramp tariffs back up, even as the administration tries to keep things calm heading into an election cycle. For APPA members, the key takeaway is that this truce is not permanent and may not be as stable as headlines suggest.
We wrapped up an information packed session with a poll of our expert panelist asking them for one thing to do now. Pulling those together, here’s a consolidated action list:
Especially for agricultural products, raw materials, and components used in pet food and hard goods.
Tariff policy may be volatile, but inaction is the most dangerous position of all. The November Trade Talks session made it clear: you can’t control the Supreme Court, Congress, or foreign governments, but you can control how prepared your company is.
By tracking your entries, protecting your rights to protest and refunds, reassessing your bond and exposure, and staying plugged into APPA’s advocacy and education resources, you’ll be far better positioned for whatever comes out of Washington in the months ahead.
Make sure you join our expert panelist December 17th at 3pm EST for our final Open Office Hours of the year. Register now and prepare to get answers to your most pressing business questions.
In addition, please don’t forget that as a benefit of your APPA membership, you can set up a free no strings attached meeting with Rebecca and her team to individually answer your questions specific to your business regarding trade logistics. If you are interested, please just contact your APPA Sales Team member to help set up the appointment.